财务与会计学术论坛第十期

信息来源: 发布时间:

题 目: R&D Expenditures and the Informativeness of Analyst Forecast Revisions 演讲者: 黄媛 香港科技大学 时 间: 2006年5月12日(星期五)2:30—4:00 PM 地 点: 嘉庚二513 参加者: 对会计研究有兴趣的广大师生 主持人: 张国清老师 报告论文摘要: This paper examines the informativeness of analyst forecast revisions for R&D firms by focusing on the asymmetric valuation role between upward and downward revisions. Prior studies (e.g. McNichols and O’Brien (1997); Diether, Malloy and Scherbina (2002)) argue that analysts are less willing to disclose unfavorable opinions than favorable opinions, and this induces an optimistic bias in consensus forecasts that increases in the degree of earnings uncertainty. Extending this argument, I predict that, relative to downward revision, upward revision is more correlated with future earnings and helps price reflect future earnings news faster, especially in high (versus low) R&D firms whose earnings is more uncertain. The evidence is consistent with the predictions. Furthermore, the return differentials between high and low R&D portfolios (as found in Chan, Lakonishok and Sougiannis (2001)) are mitigated in the firms with upward revisions. These results provide a better understanding of the properties of forecast revisions and their implications for stock pricing. 黄媛简介: 黄媛毕业于武汉大学,先后获得经济学学士学位和会计学硕士学位,并将于2006年6月获得香港科技大学会计学博士学位。现为AAA(American Accounting Association)会员。