财务与会计学术论坛第六期

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题 目: Investor Skepticism toward Reported Earnings that Meet or Narrowly Beat Analyst Earnings Expectations 演讲者: 林志星博士 新加坡国立大学 时 间: 2006年4月4日(星期二)2:30—4:00 PM 地 点: 嘉庚二513 参加者: 对会计研究有兴趣的广大师生 主持人: 孙谦 财务管理与会计研究院教授 报告论文摘要: There has been a rising incidence of firms reporting earnings that meet or narrowly beat consensus analyst earnings forecasts, resulting in zero or small positive earnings surprises. This study examines how investors react to such earnings surprises relative to earnings surprises in adjacent ranges. Investor response to earnings surprises is measured by the coefficient in the regression relating abnormal stock returns to the earnings surprise, or the earnings response coefficient (ERC). I find that the ERC for zero and small positive earnings surprises is lower than the ERC’s for earnings surprises in adjacent ranges, especially for firm-quarters in the 1998-2003 period, a period associated with a large and rising number of firms reporting zero or small positive earnings surprises. This result is consistent with investors interpreting zero and small positive earnings surprises less positively due to their suspicion that such surprises are the result of earnings and/or analyst expectations management. I also find that the ERC is lower for zero and small positive earnings surprises than for earnings surprises in adjacent ranges after the effects on the ERC of earnings management and analyst expectations management are controlled for. This result raises the possibility that investors penalize firms that report zero or small positive earnings surprises indiscriminately, and not even those that do not engage in earnings or analyst expectations management are spared. 林志新博士简介: 林志新博士毕业于厦门大学国贸系,获学士学位,后留学到新加坡,并将于2006年6月获得新加坡国立大学财务会计学博士学位。他的主要研究方向为资本市场等,现为财务管理协会学生会员,并为AAA(American Accounting Association)会员。